This paper develops and estimates a dynamic arbitrage-free model for the current forward curve as the sum of (i) an unconditional component, (ii) a maturity-specifc component and (iii) a date-specifc component.

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic arbitrage-free model for the current forward curve as the sum of (i) an unconditional component, (ii) a maturity-specific component and (iii) a date-specific component. The model combines features of the Preferred Habitat model,the Expectation...