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Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W. - 2021

This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts produced by the Phillips curve generally have been more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240950

Chapter 10 Forecasting with Many Predictors

Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W. - 2006

exploit many predictors, and this chapter surveys these methods. The first group of methods considered is forecast combination … (forecast pooling), in which a single forecast is produced from a panel of many forecasts. The second group of methods is based … increasingly precise as the number of series increases) can be used to forecast individual economic variables. The third group of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023696

Inflation forecasting

Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W. - In: NBER reporter online (2012) 1, pp. 13-16

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011367077

Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts

Stock, James H. - 2008

This paper surveys the literature since 1993 on pseudo out-of-sample evaluation of inflation forecasts in the United States and conducts an extensive empirical analysis that recapitulates and clarifies this literature using a consistent data set and methodology. The literature review and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464326

Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?

Stock, James H. - 2006

Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and, to the extent that it has, what changes in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466341

Forecasting Output and Inflation : The Role of Asset Prices

Stock, James H. - 2001

This paper examines old and new evidence on the predictive performance of asset prices for inflation and real output growth. We first review the large literature on this topic, focusing on the past dozen years. We then undertake an empirical analysis of quarterly data on up to 38 candidate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470546