The shift in corporate payout policy from dividends to buybacks creates the need for a new supply model of stock returns. Our study provides theoretical and empirical evidence for a total payout (dividends plus buybacks) model of stock returns. First, we show that long-run stock returns between...

We provide theoretical and empirical evidence over 1871–2014 that total payouts (dividends plus buybacks) are the key drivers of long-run stock market returns. We show that total payouts per share (adjusted for the share decrease from buybacks) grew in line with economic productivity, whereas...