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Empirical macromodels under test : a comparative simulation study of the employment effects of a revenue neutral cut in social security contributions
Buscher, Herbert S.; Buslei, Hermann; Göggelmann, Klaus; … - 1998 - Preliminary version
In the paper we simulate a revenue-neutral cut in the social security contribution rate using five different types of macro- / microeconomic models, namely two models based on time-series data where the labour market is modelled basically demand oriented, two models of the class of computable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011442295
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Lasso-type and heuristic strategies in model selection and forecasting
Savin, Ivan; Winker, Peter - 2012
. The two strategies are compared by means of a Monte-Carlo simulation study together with an empirical application to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009630302
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Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in stochastic simulations : an application to fiscal policy simulations using an aggregate disequilibrium model of the West German economy 1960-1994
Franz, Wolfgang; Göggelmann, Klaus; Schellhorn, Martin; … - 1998
Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations … possible margin. Because of nonlinearities confidence intervals for the simulation results have to be obtained by means of … stochastic simulations. The main contribution of this paper consists in presenting the simulation results. The robustness of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441040
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Investment and employment adjustment after unification : some results from a macroeconometric disequilibrium model
Radowski, Daniel; Smolny, Werner; Winker, Peter - 1999
The macroeconomic development in West Germany in the aftermath of unification was characterized by a boom period in 1990/1991, a deep recession in 1992/1993 and a slow recovery since then. In East Germany, in contrast, unification induced a breakdown of production and employment followed by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011443447
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Modeling German unification in a disequilibrium framework
Winker, Peter; Smolny, Werner; Radowski, Daniel - 1999
Unification fundamentally changed the terms of quantitative macroeconomic analysis for Germany. Two main areas concerned are data availability for the eastern part of Germany and structural changes within the behavioural equations after unification. Our paper presents results from the estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011443482
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Prognosen für den Schweizer Tourismus ; 2015, Mai
Abrahamsen, Yngve; Haelg, Florian; Simmons-Süer, Banu; … - 2015
Die Frankenaufwertung und der starke Rückgang bei den russischen Gästen haben sich in der Schweizer Tourismuswirtschaft bemerkbar gemacht. Nach zwei Jahren der leichten Erholung, wird es in diesem Jahr wieder zu einem moderaten Rückgang der Hotellogiernächte kommen. Gemäss Prognose beträgt...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011285444
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Das Personenfreizügigkeitsabkommen Schweiz-EU/EFTA und das Wachstum des BIP pro Kopf in der Schweiz : Bericht zuhanden des Bundesamtes für Migration (BFM)
Siegenthaler, Michael; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - 2012
Dieser Bericht beleuchtet, wie das Personenfreizügigkeitsabkommen (FZA) der Schweiz mit den EU/EFTA-Staaten das … Einkommenswachstum in der Schweiz in den letzten Jahren beeinflusst hat. Der Bericht verfolgt das Ziel, Klarheit in die in der … Bruttoinlandprodukts (BIP) pro Kopf der Bevölkerung in der Schweiz gehabt hat. Aus den Analysen lässt sich vor allem ein genereller Schluss …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009664710
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Der bilaterale Weg : eine ökonomische Bestandsaufnahme ; Aktualisierung der Studie "Auswirkung der bilateralen Abkommen auf die Schweizer Wirtschaft"
Abberger, Klaus; Abrahamsen, Yngve; Bolli, Thomas; … - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010473130
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Stochastic simulations of a macroeconomic disequilibrium model for West Germany
Schellhorn, Martin; Winker, Peter - 1994
allows the conclusion to be drawn that notwithstanding the non-linearities and dynamic features the Simulation properties of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009774716