Does increased policy uncertainty dampen investment plans of firms? We provide direct evidence on this question by examining the effects of an unexpectedly accepted and farreaching referendum in Switzerland in February 2014. The vote has put several economically relevant agreements between...

In Switzerland a sudden policy uncertainty shock happened in February 2014 with the close and largely unexpected acceptance of a referendum aiming at limiting free movement of persons. The referendum requires Switzerland to reintroduce annual quotas for immigrants within three years. The...

This paper presents a coincident and a leading composite monthly indicator for the world business cycle - the Global Economic Barometers. Both target the world’s output growth rate cycle. The calculation of these indicators comprises two main stages. The first consists of a variable selection...

Am 10. Juni 2018 stimmen die Schweizer über die Volksinitiative „Für krisensicheres Geld: Geldschöpfung allein durch die Nationalbank!“ (Vollgeld-Initiative) ab. Die Initiative fordert, dass den Geschäftsbanken die Schaffung von elektronischem Geld untersagt wird. Neues Geld soll als...