Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...

We consider a setting where investors receive private signals about cash flows as well as their betas. We obtain a closed-form solution for the case where informed agents are risk neutral and the market maker is risk averse. Market liquidity is non-linear and non-monotonic (under reasonable...

The distance between short- and long-run moving averages of prices (MAD) predicts future equity returns in the cross-section. Annualized value-weighted alphas from the accompanying hedge portfolios are around 9%, and the predictability goes beyond momentum, 52-week highs, profitability, and...

This paper sheds empirical light on whether sentiment affects the profitability of price momentum strategies. We hypothesize that news that contradicts investors' sentiment causes cognitive dissonance, which slows the diffusion of signals that oppose the direction of sentiment. This phenomenon...

We provide a synthesis of the empirical evidence on market liquidity. The liquidity measurement literature has established standard measures of liquidity that apply to broad categories of market microstructure data. Specialized measures of liquidity have been developed to deal with data...

High levels of turnover in financial markets are consistent with the notion that trading, like gambling, yields direct utility to some agents. We show that the presence of these agents attenuates covariance risk pricing and volatility, and implies a negative relation between volume and future...

Regression regularization techniques show that deviations of accounting fundamentals from their preceding moving averages forecast drifts in equity market prices. The deviations-based predictability survives a comprehensive set of prominent anomalies. The profitability applies strongly to the...

Do order flows in index derivatives play an informational role? Weekly index put order flow on the International Securities Exchange positively and robustly predicts weekly S&P 500 index returns. This result obtains mainly for net put buying and is stronger in high VIX periods and in periods...

Feedback from stock prices to cash flows occurs because information revealed by firms' stock prices influences the actions of competitors. We explore the implications of feedback within a noisy rational expectations setting with publicly listed and private firms. In our setting, stock prices are...