The Stock Market Capitalization (SMC) of a country, defined as the aggregated market value equity of companies in the respective equity market, is commonly used to measure the widening and deepening of stock market activity. SMC also influences economic growth predictions and public consensus...

The aim of much horserace modelling is to appraise the informational efficiency of betting markets. The prevailing approach involves forecasting the runners' finish positions by means of discrete or continuous response regression models. However, theoretical considerations and empirical evidence...

This paper introduces an improved approach for forecasting the outcome of horseraces. Building upon previous literature, a state-of-the-art modelling paradigm is developed which integrates least-square support vector regression and conditional logit procedures to predict horses' winning...

This paper examines the degree to which individuals tend to be overconfident in their judgements and identifies the implications for those trading in prediction markets. The findings from laboratory-based psychological studies of overconfidence are compared and contrasted with those from...

This paper compares two approaches to predicting outcomes in a speculative market, the horserace betting market. In particular, the nature of one- and two-step conditional logit procedures involving a process for exploding the choice set are outlined, their strengths and weaknesses are compared...

This paper explores differences in market ecology in a speculative financial market, the horserace betting market, and examines the impact these variations have on the information which returns seeking bettors need to incorporate in their subjective probability estimates. Conditional logit...