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We develop a forecast superiority testing methodology which is robust to the choice of loss function. Following Jin …, Corradi and Swanson (JCS: 2017), we rely on a mapping between generic loss forecast evaluation and stochastic dominance … suggests that prior forecast accuracy matters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Namely, for our longest forecast …
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Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of … misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses … this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors …
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In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We...
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