Rationality of early release data is typically tested using linear regressions. Thus, failure to reject the null does not rule out the possibility of nonlinear dependence. This paper proposes two tests that have power against generic nonlinear alternatives. A Monte Carlo study shows that the...

In this paper, we empirically assess the extent to which early release inefficiency and definitional change affect prediction precision. In particular, we carry out a series of ex-ante prediction experiments in order to examine: the marginal predictive content of the revision process, the...

In recent years, numerous volatility-based derivative products have been engineered. This has led to interest in constructing conditional predictive densities and confidence intervals for integrated volatility. In this paper, we propose nonparametric kernel estimators of the aforementioned...

In recent years, numerous volatility-based derivative products have been engineered. This has led to interest in constructing conditional predictive den- sities and con¯dence intervals for integrated volatility. In this paper, we propose nonparametric estimators of the aforementioned...

Mild factor loading instability, particularly if sufficiently independent across the different constituent variables, does not affect the estimation of the number of factors, nor subsequent estimation of the factors themselves (see e.g.  Stock and Watson (2009)). This result does not hold in...

In recent years, numerous volatility-based derivative products have been engineered. This has led to interest in constructing conditional predictive densities and confidence intervals for integrated volatility. In this paper, we propose nonparametric kernel estimators of the aforementioned...

The main objective of this paper is to propose a feasible, model free estimator of the predictive density of integrated volatility. In this sense, we extend recent papers by Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), and by Andersen, Bollerslev and Meddahi (2004, 2005), who address the...

This chapter builds on previous work by Bhardwaj and Swanson (2004) who address the notion that many fractional I(d) processes may fall into the empty box" category, as discussed in Granger (1999). However, rather than focusing primarily on linear models, as do Bhardwaj and Swanson, we analyze...

This paper addresses the notion that many fractional I(d) processes may fall into the ?empty box? category, as discussed in Granger (1999). We present ex ante forecasting evidence based on an updated version of the absolute returns series examined by Ding, Granger and Engle (1993) that suggests...

Rationality of early release data is typically tested using linear regressions. Thus, failure to reject the null does not rule out the possibility of nonlinear dependence. This paper proposes two tests that have power against generic nonlinear alternatives. A Monte Carlo study shows that the...