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In this paper, we assess the predictive content of latent economic policy uncertainty and data surprises factors for forecasting and nowcasting GDP using factor-type econometric models. Our analysis focuses on five emerging market economies, including Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and...
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In this paper, we contribute to the nascent literature on nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging market economies using big data methods. This is done by analyzing the usefulness of various dimension reduction, machine learning and shrinkage methods including sparse principal component...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012915427
macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard …) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated …-MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012952732
uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with … particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap procedures for calculating the impact of parameter estimation error …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014052483
uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with … particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap procedures for calculating the impact of parameter estimation error …). -- block bootstrap ; forecasting ; recursive estimation scheme ; rolling estimation scheme ; model misspecification ; nonlinear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130740
uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with … particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap procedures for calculating the impact of parameter estimation error on …-sample estimation periods are ended any time during the 1980s, but less evidence during the 1970s. Furthermore, recursive estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003698518
estimation error is crucial to understanding the empirical performance of such models. This "parameter estimation error" result …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009777938
parameter estimation error is crucial to understanding the empirical performance of such models. This quot;parameter estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012711524
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