Central banks regularly monitor select financial and macroeconomic variables in order to obtain early indication of the impact of monetary policies. This practice is discussed on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website, for example, where one particular set of macroeconomic “indicators”...

Central banks regularly monitor select financial and macroeconomic variables in order to obtain early indication of the impact of monetary policies. This practice is discussed on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website, for example, where one particular set of macroeconomic "indicators" is...

Diffusion index models have received considerable attention from both theoreticians and empirical econometricians in recent years. One reason for this is that datasets with many variables are increasingly becoming available and being utilized for economic modelling, and another is that common...

In the context of latent factor models that are widely used in economics, a common assumption made is one of factor pervasiveness, which implies that all available predictor or informative variables in a dataset, with the possible exception of a negligible number of them, load significantly on...

In this paper, we evaluate the marginal predictive content of a variety of new business conditions and economic uncertainty indexes. Our indexes are defined as latent factors extracted from a high dimensional macroeconomic dataset (business conditions indexes) and as functions of predictive...