What caused the financial crisis -- What prolonged the crisis -- Why the crisis worsened dramatically a year after it began -- What went right in the two decades before the crisis -- Why a black swan landed in the money market in August 2007

"This paper shows that the theory of monetary policy rules is able to explain, predict, and help understand a variety of phenomenon in macroeconomics and finance, including the Great Moderation, the correlation between exchange rates and interest rates, and the shift in the response of the term...