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We replicate three bank failure models (Martin (1977), Cole and White (2012), and DeYoung and Torna (2013)) and introduce a new predictive model along with several evaluation methods to compare their out-of-sample predictive accuracy. We find that the models are highly accurate individually, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894614
We consider comprehensive data on crowdfunding in the U.S., including debt (marketplace lending), rewards, donations, and equity crowdfunding, to formally test for the first time if banks are complements or substitutes to crowdfunding. The data indicate that bank failures in a county are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012896639
We compare the out-of-sample accuracy of three methodologies—the time-varying hazard model of Shumway (2001), the static probit model used by Cole and Gunther (1998), and a static logistic regression model similar to Cole and White (2012)—in forecasting U.S. bank failures. When we limit all...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857629
Researching the determinants of bank failure is an important task, yet the extant literature on bank failure early warning models fail to identify which model technique, sampling methodology, or set of coefficients provides the most accurate model when predicting failure on out-of-sample data....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350651