We reexamine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from several perspectives, using monthly data on the deutsche mark-U.S. dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique, we reject the restrictions imposed on the data by the forward-looking rational expectations monetary model....

This paper uses nonparametric procedures to test for a shift in the volatility of nominal and real exchange rates for members and nonmembers of the ERM. The results imply a reduction in volatility for ERM members, especially during the latter half of its operation. We also demonstrate that this...

The quality of an exchange rate forecasting model has typically been judged relative to a random-walk in terms of out-of-sample forecast errors. The difficulty of outperforming this benchmark is well documented, although Clarida and Taylor have demonstrated how the random walk can be beaten in...

Although the ERM II rules allow the Danish krone to fluctuate against the euro within an official target zone of 4.5%, most of the time the exchange rate has remained in a narrow range around its unconditional mean. Estimating a Smooth Transition Autoregression Target Zone (STARTZ) model...

The coordination channel has recently been established as an additional means by which foreign exchange market intervention may be effective. It is conjectured that strong and persistent misalignments of the exchange rate are caused by a coordination failure among fundamentals-based traders. In...

Foreign exchange rates, asset prices and capital movements are expected to be closely related to each other as international capital markets become more and more integrated. This paper provides new empirical evidence from an index of exchange-rate adjusted cross-country asset price ratios, which...

Though unambiguously outperforming all other financial markets in terms of liquidity, foreign exchange trading is still performed in opaque and decentralized markets. In particular, the two-tier market structure consisting of a customer segment and an interdealer segment to which only market...

This paper applies nonlinear econometric models to empirically investigate the effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) exchange rate policy. First, results from a STARTZ model are provided revealing nonlinear mean reversion of the Australian dollar exchange rate in the sense that...

We propose a nonlinear econometric model that can explain both the observed volatility and the persistence of real and nominal exchange rates. The model implies that near equilibrium, the nominal exchange rate will be well approximated by a random walk process. Large departures from...