In this paper we consider the choice that retirees might make between drawing down from their pension pot and the purchase of an annuity. A key finding of our research that in a world of ‘loss aversion’, across a very wide range of assumptions, there is almost always a ‘crossover point’...

This paper utilises monthly data from the U.K. stock market to examine possible regularities in variables (trading probability and fractional turnover) which may be (or may be hypothesised to be) associated with liquidity risk. Modelling is based upon extensions to the CAPM involving variables...

We discuss the nature and importance of the concept of Sequence Risk, the risk that a bad return occurs at a particularly unfortunate time, such as around the point of maximum accumulation or the start of decumulation. This is especially relevant in the context of retirement savings, where the...

A significant part of the development in pension provision in many countries is the emergence of ‘Target Date Funds' or TDFs. In this paper we examine the proposition of de-risking through life and the guidance offered by TDFs in the decumulation phase following retirement. We investigate the...

In this paper we examine the proposition of de-risking through life and the guidance offered by TDFs in the decumulation phase following retirement. Using both Monte Carlo methods along with actual historical experience we investigate the withdrawal experience associated with Glidepath Investing...

We examine the effectiveness of applying a trend following methodology to global asset allocation between equities, bonds, commodities and real estate. The application of trend following offers a substantial improvement in risk-adjusted performance compared to traditional buy-and-hold...

We investigate the relationship between Value, Growth and two forms of Momentum across a wide range of developed and emerging international equity markets using MSCI total return ‘smart beta' indices. As would be anticipated, Value generally beats Growth. A distinction is then made between...

Recent research has confirmed the behaviour of traders that significant excess returns can be achieved from following the predictions of the carry trade which involves buying currencies with relatively high short-term interest rates, or equivalently a high forward premium, and selling those with...

We examine the consequences of alternative popular investment strategies for the decumulation of funds invested for retirement through a defined contribution pension scheme. We examine in detail the viability of specific ‘safe' withdrawal rates including the ‘4%-rule' of Bengen (1994). We...

We investigate the relationship between size and momentum across a wide range of international equity markets. A distinction is made between relative momentum where assets are ranked according to their performance against each other, and absolute momentum (or trend following) where assets are...