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risk-adjusted portfolio returns after accounting for estimation error and model uncertainty, as evidenced by the …
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We develop an unobserved components approach to study surveys of forecasts containing multiple forecast horizons. Under the assumption that forecasters optimally update their beliefs about past, current and future state variables as new information arrives, we use our model to extract...
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methods provide better overall forecasting performance and offer more attractive risk profiles compared to individual, pooled …
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