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We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008504394
Recent empirical work documents substantial disagreement in inflation expectations obtained from survey data. Furthermore, the extent of such disagreement varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004974506
Combination of forecasts from survey data is complicated by the frequent entry and exit in real time of individual forecasters which renders conventional least squares regression approaches to estimation of the combination weights infeasible. We explore the consequences of this for a variety of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004989548