Regime-switching models can match the tendency of financial markets to often change their behavior abruptly and the phenomenon that the new behavior of financial variables often persists for several periods after such a change. Although the regimes captured by regime-switching models are...

We use a unique Brazilian dataset on daily survey expectations to obtain direct measures of shocks to central bank target rates and changes in economic uncertainty. Using these measures, we gauge the effect of monetary policy shocks on economic uncertainty, term premia, inflation expectations,...

The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic massively increased uncertainty about firms’ cash flows and their access to financial markets. We examine its effect on firms’ strategies for preserving cash by suspending dividends and buybacks and raising new funds through bond and equity issues. We...

This paper presents evidence of persistent `bull' and `bear' regimes in UK stock returns and considers their economic implications from the perspective of an investor's portfolio decisions. We find that the perceived state probability has a large effect on the optimal allocation to stocks,...

This paper studies optimal asset allocation to stocks, long-term bonds and T-bills and consumption choice in the presence of regime switching in asset returns. Optimal asset allocations vary considerably across four states - both across bonds and stocks and among large and small stocks - and...

Empirical evidence suggests that many macroeconomic and financial time series are subject to occasional structural breaks. In this paper we present analytical results quantifying the effects of such breaks on the correlation between the forecast and the realization and on the ability to forecast...

Autoregressive models are used routinely in forecasting and often lead to better performance than more complicated models. However, empirical evidence is also suggesting that the autoregressive representations of many macroeconomic and financial time series are likely to be subject to structural...