This paper implements strategies that use macroeconomic variables to select European equity mutual funds, including Pan-European, country, and sector funds. We find that several macro-variables are useful in locating funds with future outperformance, and that countryspecific mutual funds provide...

This paper implements strategies that use macroeconomic variables to select European equity mutual funds, including Pan-European, country, and sector funds. We find that several macro variables are useful in locating funds with future outperformance, and that country-specific mutual funds...

We propose a new approach to imposing economic constraints on forecasts of the equity premium. Economic constraints are used to modify the posterior distribution of the parameters of the predictive return regression in a way that better allows the model to learn from the data. We consider two...

This paper studies asset allocation decisions in the presence of regime switching in asset returns. Wefind evidence that four separate regimes - characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states- are required to capture the joint distribution of stock and bond returns. Optimal asset...

This paper implements strategies that use macroeconomic variables to select European equity mutual funds, including Pan-European, country, and sector funds. We find that several macro-variables are useful in locating funds with future outperformance, and that countryspecific mutual funds provide...

We apply a new bootstrap statistical technique to examine the performance of the U.S. open-end, domestic-equity mutual fund industry over the 1975 to 2002 period. This bootstrap approach is necessary because the cross-section of mutual fund alphas has a complex, non-normal distribution - due to...

Regime switching models can match the tendency of financial markets to often change their behavior abruptly and the phenomenon that the new behavior of financial variables often persists for several periods after such a change. While the regimes identified by regime switching models are...