Disagreement in inflation expectations observed from survey data varies systematically over time in a way that reflects … the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries … in the forecasters' costs of over- and under-predicting inflation. Our model implies (i) biased forecasts; (ii) positive …

Recent empirical work documents substantial disagreement in inflation expectations obtained from survey data … current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries in the forecaster's costs of … over- and under-predicting inflation. Our model implies biased forecasts with positive serial correlation in forecast …

forecasts. Through simulations and an empirical application to inflation forecasts we show that the entry and exit of individual …

out-of-sample forecasting exercise for U.S. GDP growth and inflation suggests that models that allow for parameter …

Disagreement in inflation expectations observed from survey data varies systematically over time in a way that reflects … the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries … in the forecasters’ costs of over- and under-predicting inflation. Our model implies (i) biased forecasts; (ii) positive …

standard Gibbs sampling methods. When applied to monthly time series on growth in industrial production and inflation, we find …