A rational expectations storage model is used to simulate monthly corn prices, which are used to evaluate marketing strategies to manage price risk. The data are generated and analyzed in two formats: for long-run outcomes over 10,000 “years” of monthly prices and for 10,000 cases of 40-year...

A structural model is developed to simulate the probability distributions of corn prices by month. The intent is to determine the relationship between model specifications, based on a rational expectations competitive storage framework, and the probability distributions of monthly prices....

Expectations about future economic conditions are important determinants of commodity prices. This paper presents a relatively simple model that makes futures prices for corn a function of expected production and inventories and of variables that account for demand shifts. The intent is to...