Over the next several decades, Medicare costs are going to increase significantly. Previous analysis has looked at the potential range of costs using a deterministic, scenario-based analysis. This provides a range of potential outcomes but provides no information as to the likelihood of these...

Analysis and discussion of Social Security policy are usually based on expected fiscal and societal outcomes. However, future demographic and economic trends are uncertain, and thus ultimate outcomes for aggregate system financial flows and the distribution of taxes and benefits across...

The cost of the Medicare program will increase dramatically as the baby boom generation reaches retirement. Results from the Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Model (CBOLT) indicate that Medicare costs will equal more than 9 percent of GDP by 2078. This paper considers the impact of...