This paper relates indicators of household financial stress to household income and expenditure with the objective of identifying household stress thresholds and comparable equivalence scales. A model is proposed whereby households try to absorb income shocks or shifts by shrinking consumption...

This paper examines the forecasting qualities of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) over a set of single factor models of short-term interest rates. Using weekly and high frequency data for the one-month Eurodollar rate, BMA produces predictive likelihoods that are considerably better than the...

A bivariate model that allows for both a time-varying cointegrating matrix and time-varying cointegrating rank is presented. The model addresses the issue that, in real data, the validity of a constant cointegrating relationship may be questionable. The model nests the sub-models implied by...

This paper implements a procedure to evaluate time-varying bank interest rate adjustments over a sample period which includes changes in industry structure, market and credit conditions and varying episodes of monetary policy. The model draws attention to the pivotal role of official rates and...

This paper investigates the forecasting performance of the diffusion index approach for the Australian economy, and considers the forecasting performance of the diffusion index approach relative to composite forecasts. Weighted and unweighted factor forecasts are benchmarked against composite...

A model incorporating common Markovian regimes and GARCH residuals in a persistent factor environment is considered. Given the intractable and approximate nature of the likelihood function, a Metropolis-in-Gibbs sampler with Bayesian features is constructed for estimation purposes. The common...

Although existing research has examined the association between macroeconomic data and particular equity markets, little is known regarding the economic content of the latent factors common to equity markets. In this paper, several models are estimated to examine the economic composition of the...

In contrast to the existing focus on intertemporal global integration, this paper examines equity market integration from the dual perspectives of the global-regional dichotomy and the equity market regime structure. Results are obtained using an exact Kalman filter with common regimes and GARCH...

This paper examines whether the disaggregation of consumer sentiment data into its sub-components improves the real-time capacity to forecast GDP and consumption. A Bayesian error correction approach augmented with the consumer sentiment index and permutations of the consumer sentiment...

A forecasting model for unemployment is constructed that exploits the time-series properties of unemployment while satisfying the economic relationships specified by Okun's law and the Phillips curve. In deriving the model, we jointly consider the problem of obtaining estimates of the unobserved...