In the short-run, bond risk premia exhibit pronounced spikes around major economic and financial crises. In contrast, long-term bond risk premia feature cyclical swings. We empirically examine the predictability of the market variance risk premium – a proxy of economic uncertainty – for bond...

We test the role of funding-constrained investors across developed financial markets. We compile direct measures of the severity of funding frictions, or illiquidity, from deviations of government bond yields from a fitted yield curve. Using these illiquidity measures, we first show that higher...

We document that a trading strategy that is short the U.S. dollar and long other currencies exhibits significantly larger excess returns on days with scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. We also show that these excess returns (i) are higher for currencies with higher...

We study feedback from the risk of outstanding mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on the level and volatility of interest rates. We incorporate supply shocks resulting from changes in MBS duration into a parsimonious equilibrium dynamic term structure model and derive three predictions that are...

We document that the cross-sectional dispersion of conditional FX correlation is countercyclical and that currencies that perform badly (well) during periods of high dispersion yield high (low) average excess returns. We also find a negative cross-sectional association between average FX...

This paper studies variance risk premiums in the Treasury market. We first develop a theory to price variance swaps and show that the realized variance can be perfectly replicated by a static position in Treasury futures options and a dynamic position in the underlying. Pricing and hedging is...