Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....

We examine the relative weights hedge fund investors attach to past information in the fund selection process. The weighting scheme appears inconsistent with econometric forecasting models that predict fund returns, alphas or Sharpe ratios. In particular, investor flows are highly sensitive to...

Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....

We examine the relative weights hedge fund investors attach to past information in the fund selection process. The weighting scheme appears inconsistent with econometric forecasting models that predict fund returns, alphas or Sharpe ratios. In particular, investor flows are highly sensitive to...

Conventional short-term reversal strategies exhibit dynamic exposures to the Fama and French (1993) factors. We develop a novel reversal strategy based on residual stock returns that does not exhibit these exposures and consequently earns risk-adjusted returns that are twice as large as those of...

Using a sample of domestic U.S. equity mutual funds, we find strong evidence that investors respond to managerial replacements. We find that the top performing funds that have a change in management subsequently have lower flows compared to funds of which the manager is retained. On top of that,...

Conventional short-term reversal strategies exhibit dynamic exposures to the Fama and French (1993) factors. We develop a novel reversal strategy based on residual stock returns that does not exhibit these exposures and consequently earns risk-adjusted returns that are twice as large as those of...

The consensus wisdom of active mutual fund managers, as reflected in their average over- and underweighting decisions, contains valuable information about future stock returns. Analyzing a comprehensive sample of active U.S. equity funds 1984-2008, we find that stocks heavily overweighted by...

We show that a real-time trading strategy which front-runs the anticipated forced sales by mutual funds experiencing extreme capital outflows generates an alpha of 0.5% per month during the 1990-2010 period. The abnormal return stems from selling pressure among stocks that are below the NYSE...

Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....