We explore whether economic links via trade affect aggregate Chinese stock market returns. We find that market return indices from countries that China net imports from can forecast the Chinese aggregate market return at the weekly time horizon. The stock returns of countries that China net...

This article re-examines real interest parity (RIP), focusing upon which component of real interest parity drives convergence to parity. We find that it is the reversion of inflation rather than nominal interest rates which is the primary source of convergence to RIP. Nominal interest rate...

This study examines whether the output gap leads portfolio stock returns. The paper conducts in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting of US stock portfolios formed on the basis of size and value. First, the paper finds cross-sectional portfolios are predictable in-sample by the output gap....

Volatility is a key determinant of derivative prices and optimal hedge ratios. This paper examines whether there are structural breaks in commodity spot return volatility using an iterative cumulative sum of squares procedure and then uses GARCH (1,1) to model volatility during each regime.