The aim of the paper is to assess empirically the importance of different types of shocks in explaining the Swedish current account. We do this by first estimating an unrestricted vector autoregression system in these four variables: the real wage, the terms of trade, government consumption, and...

In this paper, the authors estimate devaluation risk in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The target exchange ra te is modeled as a censored variable, a "shadow peg" that is only observed when the equilibrium floating rate is too far from the prevailing peg. Using a two-step procedure, the...