This paper applies the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to the Japanese economy. The both parameters and volatilities, which are assumed to follow a random-walk process, are estimated using a Bayesian method with MCMC. The recursive structure is assumed for identification and...

This article applies the realized GARCH model, which incorporates the GARCH model with realized volatility (RV), to quantile forecasts of financial returns such as Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. This model has certain advantages in the application to quantile forecasts because it can...

We call the realized variance (RV), calculated with observed prices contaminated by (market) microstructure noises (MNs), the noise-contaminated RV (NCRV), and refer to the bias component in the NCRV, associated with the MNs, as the MN component. This paper develops a state space method for...

This article evaluates the predictive performance of the market variance risk premium (VRP) in Japan on the Nikkei 225 returns, credit spreads, and the composite index of coincident indicators. Different measures such as expected and ex-post VRPs, which are constructed from model-free implied...

The time-varying vector autoregressive (VAR) model has recently attracted attention as a time series model for the analysis of macroeconomic variables and developed in various directions. This article explains this model and surveys the recent development of its structure and empirical...

This paper proposes a new method to compute the news impact curve for stochastic volatility (SV) models. The new method incorporates the joint movement of return and volatility, which has been ignored by the extant literature, by simply adding a couple of steps to the Bayesian MCMC estimation...

This article examines option pricing performance using realized volatilities with or without handling microstructure noise, non-trading hours and large jumps. The dynamics of realized volatility is specified by ARFIMA(X) and HAR(X) models. Main results using put options on the Nikkei 225 index...

Abstract We call the realized variance (RV) calculated with observed prices contaminated by (market) microstructure noises (MNs) the noise-contaminated RV (NCRV), referring to the bias component in the NCRV associated with the MNs as the MN component. This paper develops a state space method for...

This article analyzes whether daily realized volatility, which is the sum of squared intraday returns over a day, is useful for option pricing. Different realized volatilities are calculated with or without taking account of microstructure noise and with or without using overnight and lunch-time...

We call the realized variance (RV) calculated with observed prices contaminated by microstructure noises (MNs) the noise-contaminated RV (NCRV) and refer to the component in the NCRV associated with the MNs as the MN component. This paper develops a state space method for estimating the...