This paper examines the upward trend of numbers in receipt of Invalidity Benefit (the major contributory benefit for the long-term sick) in Britain since 1971. Possible explanations include the rising level of unemployment through much of the period; the heightened link between ill-health and...

The difficulties encountered in forecasting social security expenditure (significantly underpredicted for much of the 1980s) have long been a source of concern-not least to officials in the DSS. Although official forecasts are undertaken and published primarily because they are needed for the...