Using German data this study applies an unobserved-components approach to disentangle the unemployment rate into a … trend component of unemployment, which triggers permanent reactions of the workers, is likely connected to a structural … effect. By splitting up the participation effect of changes in the unemployment rate our analysis differs profoundly from …

forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA’s regional agencies are asked about their … expectations of future labor market developments. We generate an aggregate unemployment leading indicator that exploits serial …

from employment into unemployment in April 2020 were due to the containment measures. In a second approach, we make use of … the unemployment effect coming from the separations margin. In sum, the lockdown measures increased unemployment in the …

This paper studies the conditional patterns of unemployment dynamics in Germany. We employ a structural VAR model and …

With the Corona crisis, unemployment is increasing in Germany despite all the countermeasures taken. In previous … recessions, unemployment of the low-skilled in particular has become entrenched. Today, it is becoming apparent that …

considerably increased inflows from employment into unemployment, and 33 percent of the reduced outflows from unemployment to … unemployment in the short run by 80,000 persons. …

considerably increased inflows from employment into unemployment, and 33 percent of the reduced outflows from unemployment to … unemployment in the short run by 80,000 persons …