We state that long-run restrictions that identify structural shocks in VAR models with unit roots lose their original interpretation if the fractional integration order of the affected variable is below one. For such fractionally integrated models we consider a medium-run approach that employs...

We state that long-run restrictions that identify structural shocks in VAR models with unit roots lose their original interpretation if the fractional integration order of the affected variable is below one. For such fractionally integrated models we consider a medium-run approach that employs...

We state that long-run restrictions that identify structural shocks in VAR models with unit roots lose their original interpretation if the fractional integration order of the affected variable is below one. For such fractionally integrated models we consider a medium-run approach that employs...

We construct a new Markov-switching unobserved components framework for the analysis of hysteresis effects. Our model unifies the ingredients of trend-cycle decomposition, identification of spillovers between the components and asymmetry over the business cycle. Employing the model for Germany...

We sharpen tests for "discouragement" and "added worker" effects by splitting the explanatory variable - the unemployment rate - into a short-term and a long-term component. While short-term unemployment might not result in additional workers on a large scale, long-term unemployment reduces...

Using German data this study applies an unobserved-components approach to disentangle the unemployment rate into a (stochastic) trend and a cyclical part and to estimate the influence of these components on labor participation. The persistent trend component of unemployment, which triggers...

Between 1979 and 2009, the German labour market moved along a Beveridge curve with changing slope that usually shifted outwards but once inwards. We employ an unobserved components model to simultaneously disentangle permanent and transitory components of matching efficiency and separation rate...

This paper analyzes volatility spillovers in multivariate GARCH-type models. We show that the cross-effects between the conditional variances determine the persistence of the transmitted volatility innovations. In particular, the influence of a foreign volatility innovation on a conditional...

In the academic literature, the economic interpretation of stock market volatility is inherently ambivalent, being considered an indicator of either information flow or uncertainty. We show in a stylized model economy that both views suggest volatility-dependent cross-market spillovers. If...

This paper analyses the relationship between wage inequality and labour market development. Relevant economic theories are ambiguous, just as public debates. We measure the effects of wage inequality, skill-biased and skill-neutral technology on hours worked, productivity and wages in a novel...