In this paper it is shown that the number of latent factors in a multiple multivariate regression model need not be larger than the number of the response variables in order to achieve an optimal prediction. The practical importance of this lemma is outlined and an application of such a...

This paper deals with the problem of the discrimination between stable and unstable time series. One criterion for the seperation is given by the size of the Lyapunov exponent, which was originally defined for deterministic systems. However, this paper will show, that the Lyapunov exponent can...

When trying to interpret estimated parameters the researcher is interested in the (relative) importance of the individual predictors. However, if the predictors are highly correlated, the interpretation of coefficients, e.g. as economic ?multipliers?, is not applicable in standard regression or...

This paper analyses the influence of 13 stylized facts of the German economy on the West German business cycles from 1955 to 1994. The method used in this investigation is Statistical Experimental Design with orthogonal factors. We are looking for all existing Plackett-Burman designs realizable...

In simulation studies Latent Factor Prediction Pursuit outperformed classical reduced rank regression methods. The algorithm described so far for Latent Factor Prediction Pursuit had two shortcomings: It was only implemented for situations where the explanatory variables were of full colum rank....

When analyzing business cycle data, one observes that the relevant predictor variables are often highly correlated. This paper presents a method to obtain measures of importance for the classification of data in which such multicollinearity is present. In systems with highly correlated variables...

Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) performs well for classifica- tion of business phases – even though the premises of an LDA are not met. As the variables are highly correlated there are numerical as well as interpretational shortcomings. By transforming the classification problem to a...

The analysis of cyclical macroeconomic phenomena is an important field of econometric research. In the recent past, research interests have de-emphasized quantitative forecasting exercises and have addressed the qualitative diagnosis of the relative stance of the economy regarding "upswing",...

This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...

This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...