We introduce a new approach to predicting market returns using the cross-section of earnings and book values to explain current stock prices and extract aggregate expected returns. The proposed measure is countercyclical; it portends a significant fraction of the time-series variation in stock...

This paper introduces a conditional extreme value volatility estimator (EVT) based on high-frequency returns. The relative performance of the extreme value volatility estimator is compared with the discrete-time GARCH and implied volatility models for 1-day and 20-day-ahead forecasts of realized...

Recent advances in econometric methodology and newly available sources of data are used to examine empirically the performance of the various extreme‐value volatility estimators that have been proposed over the past two decades. Overwhelming support is found for the use of extreme‐value...