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Stochastic modelling of tropical cyclone tracks
Rumpf, Jonas; Weindl, Helga; Höppe, Peter; Rauch, Ernst; … - In: Computational Statistics 66 (2007) 3, pp. 475-490
. The points of cyclone genesis are modelled as a spatial Poisson point process, the intensity of which is estimated using a …, thereby generating a first 6-h segment of a track. The subsequent segments are then generated by drawing changes in theses … the track is determined after each segment as a function of wind speed and location. In the present paper, the model is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010759563
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Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation
Rumpf, Jonas; Weindl, Helga; Höppe, Peter; Rauch, Ernst; … - In: Natural Hazards 48 (2009) 3, pp. 383-398
A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010996610
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Stochastic modelling of tropical cyclone tracks
Rumpf, Jonas; Weindl, Helga; Höppe, Peter; Rauch, Ernst; … - In: Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 66 (2007) 3, pp. 475-490
. The points of cyclone genesis are modelled as a spatial Poisson point process, the intensity of which is estimated using a …, thereby generating a first 6-h segment of a track. The subsequent segments are then generated by drawing changes in theses … the track is determined after each segment as a function of wind speed and location. In the present paper, the model is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010999976