The forward premium anomaly, i.e., the empirical evidence that exchange rate changes are negatively related to interest rate differentials, is one of the most robust puzzles in financial economics. We add to this literature by recasting the underlying parity relation in terms of cross-country...

The prevailing view in finance is that the evidence for long-horizon stock return predictability is significantly stronger than that for short horizons. We show that for persistent regressors, a characteristic of most of the predictive variables used in the literature, the estimators are almost...

The standard VaR approach considers only terminal risk, completely ignoring the sample path of portfolio values. In reality interim risk may be critical in a mark-to-market environment. Sharp declines in value may generate margin calls and affect trading strategies. In this paper we introduce...

This paper addresses the question of how an institution might optimally manage the market risk of a given exposure. We provide an analytical approach to optimal risk management under the assumption that the institution wishes to minimize its Value-at-Risk (VaR) using options follows a geometric...

The forward premium anomaly is one of the most robust puzzles in financial economics. We recast the underlying parity relation in terms of cross-country differences between forward interest rates rather than spot interest rates with dramatic results. These forward interest rate differentials...

The standard VaR approach considers only terminal risk, completely ignoring the path of the portfolio value prior to this final horizon. This assumption is unrealistic-interim risk may be critical in a mark-to-market environment because interim values of a portfolio may generate margin calls and...

We demonstrate that an institutional feature of numerous mutual funds - funds managing billions in assets - generates fund net asset values that reflect stale prices. Because investors can trade at these NAVs with limited transaction costs in many cases, obvious trading opportunities exist....

This paper addresses the question of how an institution might optimally manage the market risk of a given exposure. We provide an analytical approach to optimal risk management under the assumption that the institution wishes to minimize its Value-at-Risk (VaR) using options follows a geometric...

This paper reexamines the autocorrelation patterns of short- horizon stock returns. We document empirical results which imply that these autocorrelations have been overstated in the existing literature. Based on several new insights, we provide support for a market efficiency-based explanation...

While there is significant interest in investing in Brady bonds, the source of attraction is often the exposure to sovereign risk (and its yield compensation), while the exposure to U.S. interest rate risk is a quot;necessary evilquot;. This paper addresses the problem of determining the...