Recent studies have documented the existence of a "predictability smile" in the term structure of interest rates: spreads between long maturity rates and short rates predict subsequent movements in interest rates provided the long horizon is three months or less or if the long horizon is two...

Recent studies have documented the existence of a quot;predictability smilequot; in the term structure of interest rates: spreads between long maturity rates and short rates predict subsequent movements in interest rates provided the long horizon is three months or less or if the long horizon is...

Daily data on short-term interest rates are used to show how changes in Federal Reserve operating procedures have affected the term structure. Yield spreads were helpful in predicting short-term interest rate movements during the nonborrowed reserves targeting period (1979-82), but not during...