output-inflation volatility frontier of each model for alternative specifications of the interest rate rule, subject to an …-difference of the federal funds rate responds to the current output gap and the deviation of the one-year average inflation rate … complicated rules (i.e., rules that respond to a larger number of variables and/or additional lags of output and inflation …

uncertainty: such rules respond to the one-year ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap, and incorporate a …

euro area and Japanese inflation dynamics are best explained by Taylor-style contracts, while Buiter …-Jewitt/Fuhrer-Moore contracts perform somewhat better in fitting U.S. inflation dynamics. We are unable to fit Calvo-style contracts to inflation … backward-looking element. The completed model matches inflation and output dynamics in the United States, the euro area and …