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We propose a new approach to assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations using "strategic surveys". Namely, we … measure households' revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented with different economic scenarios. A … key advantage of this approach is that it provides a causal interpretation in terms of how inflation events affect long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013162104
We study the behavior of U.S. consumers' inflation expectations during the high inflation period of 2021-22 using data … from the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Short- and, to a lesser extent, mediumterm inflation expectations rose as … inflation surged in 2021. Disagreement and uncertainty about future inflation increased significantly. Then, in 2022, even as …
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Persistently low real interest rates have prompted the question whether low interest rates are here to stay. This essay assesses the empirical evidence regarding the natural rate of interest in the United States using the Laubach-Williams model. Since the start of the Great Recession, the...
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frameworks in the presence of a low natural rate of interest and a lower bound on interest rates. Under a standard inflation …-targeting approach, inflation expectations will be anchored at a level below the inflation target, which in turn exacerbates the … eliminate this problem of a downward bias in inflation expectations by following an average-inflation targeting framework that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000049
U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances – have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011578458
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