The natural rate of interest -- the real interest rate consistent with output equaling potential -- plays an important role in both economic forecasting and monetary policy. Much of the literature has assumed that the natural rate of interest is constant. For example, the Taylor rule includes a...

Shifts in the long-run rate of productivity growth are difficult, in real time, to distinguish from transitory fluctuations. We analyze the evolution of forecasts of long-run productivity growth during the 1970s and 1990s and examine in a dynamic general equilibrium model the consequences of...

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with putty-clay technology that incorporates embodied technology, investment irreversibility, and variable capacity utilization. Low short-run capital-labor substitutability native to the putty-clay framework induces the...

This paper introduces Heckscher-Ohlin trade features into a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, and studies the international transmission of productivity shocks through trade in goods. This framework improves upon existing international real business cycle models in that...

Does the federal funds rate respond to shocks when aggregate reserves are in the trillions of dollars? Has banks' demand for reserves moved over time? We provide a structural time-varying estimate of the slope of the reserve demand curve over 2010-21. We estimate a time-varying vector...

This paper uses a standard New Keynesian model to analyze the effects and implementation of various monetary policy frameworks in the presence of a low natural rate of interest and a lower bound on interest rates. Under a standard inflation-targeting approach, inflation expectations will be...

This paper analyzes the effects of the lower bound for interest rates on the distributions of expectations for future inflation and interest rates. We study a stylized New Keynesian model where the policy instrument is subject to a lower bound to motivate the empirical analysis. Two equilibria...