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We show that professional forecasters have essentially no ability to predict future recessions a few quarters ahead … forecast horizon for predicting aggregate economic activity and, especially, for signaling future recessions. We document this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361466
Presentation to the Sonoma County Economic Development Board, Rohnert Park, California, June 28, 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010724820
Economic recoveries from the past two recessions have been much more gradual than the rapid V-shaped recoveries typical … recent recession is likely to be faster than from the two previous recessions, but slower than earlier V-shaped recoveries.. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008498206
Presentation to the Sonoma County Economic Development Board, Rohnert Park, California, June 28, 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010702121
Central banks pay close attention to inflation expectations. In standard models, however, inflation expectations are tied down by the assumption of rational expectations and should be of little independent interest to policy makers. In this paper, the authors relax the assumption of rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397398
A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the context of an economy where economic agents have an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361476
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078151
A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the context of an economy where economic agents have an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352353
This paper considers the joint problem of model estimation and implementation of monetary policy in the face of uncertainty regarding the process of structural change in the economy. I model unobserved structural change through time variation in the natural rates of interest and unemployment. I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352498
Presentation to the Western Economic Association International, San Francisco, CA, July 2, 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010555520