Gegenstand dieses Beitrags ist eine quantitativ orientierte Diskussion einiger Wirkungen einer Umstrukturierung des Steuersystems anhand der neuesten und wesentlich erweiterten Version des Konstanzer aggregierten Ungleichgewichtsmodells für die westdeutsche Volkswirtschaft für den Zeitraum von...

Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations with a macroeconometric model. A macroeconometric disequilibriummodel of the West German economy is used to analyze a reform proposal for the tax system. The model was estimated...

In the paper we simulate a revenue-neutral cut in the social security contribution rate using five different types of macro- / microeconomic models, namely two models based on time-series data where the labour market is modelled basically demand oriented, two models of the class of computable...

The macroeconomic development in West Germany in the aftermath of unification was characterized by a boom period in 1990/1991, a deep recession in 1992/1993 and a slow recovery since then. In East Germany, in contrast, unification induced a breakdown of production and employment followed by a...

Unification fundamentally changed the terms of quantitative macroeconomic analysis for Germany. Two main areas concerned are data availability for the eastern part of Germany and structural changes within the behavioural equations after unification. Our paper presents results from the estimation...

Not all markets are always characterized by immediate market clearing, for example due to a delayed adjustment of quantities and prices. Macroeconometric disequilbrium models proved to be a valuable tool in assessing the relevance of such phenomena on goods and labour markets. Asymmetric...

Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to apply a regularization strategy and solve the model selection task as a continuous optimization problem. One of the most popular approaches in this research field is given by...

This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of current and future immigration flows on major macroeconomic variables of the West German economy. The analysis is based on a macroeconometric disequilibrium model for the West German economy. This model is extended until 1995 and used for several...

Efficient routines for multidimensional numerical integration are provided by quasi-Monte Carlo methods. These methods are based on evaluating the integrand at a set of representative points of the integration area. A set may be called representative if it shows a low discrepancy. However, in...

In this paper a macroeconometric disequilibrium model for West Germany is presented and its quality for policy simulations and forecasting are analyzed using stochastic in-sample simulations. The model is built on a dynamic disequilibrium model of firms' behaviour. Due to delayed adjustment of...