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Probability forecasts : a survey of national weather service forecasters

Murphy, Allan H.; Winkler, Robert L. - 1975 - Reprint

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Generalized almost stochastic dominance

Tsetlin, Ilia; Winkler, Robert L.; Huang, Rachel J.; … - In: Operations research 63 (2015) 2, pp. 363-377

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Tailored scoring rules for probabilities

Johnstone, David J.; Jose, Victor Richmond R.; Winkler, … - In: Decision analysis : a journal of the Institute for … 8 (2011) 4, pp. 256-268

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Is it better to average probabilities or quantiles?

Lichtendahl, Kenneth C.; Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; … - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 59 (2013) 7, pp. 1594-1611

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Generalized almost stochastic dominance

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"Risk" and energy systems : deterministic versus probabilistic models

Winkler, Robert L. - 1973

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The elicitation of continuous probability distributions

Matheson, James E.; Winkler, Robert L. - 1973

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Evaluating probabilities: asymmetric scoring rules

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Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts

Murphy, Allan H. - In: International journal of forecasting 7 (1992) 4, pp. 435-455

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Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. - 2012

We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two average forecasts have the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106041