Many statistical applications require the forecast of a random variable of interest over several periods into the future. The sequence of individual forecasts, one period at a time, is called a path forecast, where the term path refers to the sequence of individual future realizations of the...

This paper reviews important concepts and methods that are useful for hypothesis testing. First, we discuss the Neyman-Pearson framework. Various approaches to optimality are presented, including finite-sample and large-sample optimality. Then, some of the most important methods are summarized,...

Fund-of-funds (FoF) managers face the task of selecting a (relatively) small number of hedge funds from a large universe of candidate funds. We analyse whether such a selection can be successfully achieved by looking at the track records of the available funds alone, using advanced statistical...

Consider the problem of testing s hypotheses simultaneously. In order to deal with the multiplicity problem, the classical approach is to restrict attention to procedures that control the familywise error rate (FWE). Typically, it is known how to construct tests of the individual hypotheses, and...

Consider the problem of testing s hypotheses simultaneously. The usual approach to dealing with the multiplicity problem is to restrict attention to procedures that control the probability of even one false rejection, the familiar familywise error rate (FWER). In many applications, particularly...

Applied researchers often test for the difference of the Sharpe ratios of two investment strategies. A very popular tool to this end is the test of Jobson and Korkie (1981), which has been corrected by Memmel (2003). Unfortunately, this test is not valid when returns have tails heavier than the...

A stated objective of the Australian Plain Packaging Act 2011 is to reduce smoking prevalence. We use the Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) data set over the time period January 2001 to December 2013 to analyze whether this goal has been achieved in the first year since the implementation. In...

Covariance matrix estimation and principal component analysis (PCA) are two cornerstones of multivariate analysis. Classic textbook solutions perform poorly when the dimension of the data is of a magnitude similar to the sample size, or even larger. In such settings, there is a common remedy for...

This paper considers the problem of testing a finite number of moment inequalities. We propose a two-step approach. In the first step, a confidence region for the moments is constructed. In the second step, this set is used to provide information about which moments are “negative.” A...

The mispricing of marketing performance indicators (such as brand equity, churn, and customer satisfaction) is an important element of arguments in favor of the financial value of marketing investments. Evidence for mispricing can be assessed by examining whether or not portfolios composed of...