We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...

German GDP is expected to increase by 1.8 percent (2015), 2.1 percent (2016), and 2.3 percent (2017). Economic activity is driven by consumer spending that increases in the upcoming years by about 2 percent per year due to strong increases in real disposable income.

The pronounced expansion of the German economy accelerates further. Compared to our summer forecast, we adjust our forecast for the current and the next year upwards, and we expect gross domestic product to grow by 2 percent in the current year and 2.2 percent in the next year (summer forecast:...

The strong economic upswing in Germany has taken a break. For the current year, we revise our GDP growth forecast down by 0.5 percentage points to 2.0 percent. However, the slowdown in economic activity at the beginning of the year is mainly due to temporary factors. We therefore expect growth...

The German economy is at the brink of a recession. Gross domestic product is likely to decline again in the third quarter. Germany would thus formally be in a technical recession. However, the slowdown that began in 2018 has so far been a normalization of the previous boom period. At present,...

The strong economic upswing in Germany has taken a break. For the current year, we revise our GDP growth forecast down by 0.5 percentage points to 2.0 percent. However, the slowdown in economic activity at the beginning of the year is mainly due to temporary factors. We therefore expect growth...

The pronounced expansion of the German economy accelerates further. Compared to our summer forecast, we adjust our forecast for the current and the next year upwards, and we expect gross domestic product to grow by 2 percent in the current year and 2.2 percent in the next year (summer forecast:...

German GDP is expected to increase by 1.8 percent (2015), 2.1 percent (2016), and 2.3 percent (2017). Economic activity is driven by consumer spending that increases in the upcoming years by about 2 percent per year due to strong increases in real disposable income.

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...

The German economy is at the brink of a recession. Gross domestic product is likely to decline again in the third quarter. Germany would thus formally be in a technical recession. However, the slowdown that began in 2018 has so far been a normalization of the previous boom period. At present,...