We compute the forecastable changes in output, consumption, and hours implied by a VAR that includes the growth rate of private value added, the share of output that is consumed, and the detrended level of private hours. We show that the size of the forecastable changes in output greatly exceeds...

The paper considers optimal monetary stabilization policy in a forward-looking model, when the central bank recognizes that private sector expectations need not be precisely model-consistent, and wishes to choose a policy that will be as good as possible in the case of any beliefs that are close...

U radu se razmatra optimalna politika monetarne stabilizacije unutar dalekovidog modela kada centralna banka uvida da ocekivanja privatnog sektora ne moraju biti nužno konzistentna modelu, i želi da izabere politiku zadovoljavajucu u slucaju bilo kog uverenja dovoljno bliskog konzistentnosti...

"This paper considers the appropriate stabilization objectives for monetary policy in a microfounded model with staggered price-setting. Rotemberg and Woodford (1997) and Woodford (2002) have shown that under certain conditions, a local approximation to the expected utility of the representative...