Speculative industries exploit novel technologies subject to two risks. First, there is uncertainty about the fundamental value of the innovation: is it strong or fragile? Second, it is difficult to monitor managers, which creates moral hazard. Because of moral hazard, managers earn agency rents...

We study the dynamics of an innovative industry when agents learn about the likelihood of negative shocks. Managers can exert risk-prevention effort to mitigate the consequences of shocks. If no shock occurs, confidence improves, attracting managers to the innovative sector. But, when condence...

We study the dynamics of an innovative industry when agents learn about the likelihood of negative shocks. Managers can exert risk-prevention effort to mitigate the consequences of shocks. If no shock occurs, confidence improves, attracting managers to the innovative sector. But, when condence...

This research was conducted within the Paul Woolley Research Initiative on Capital Market Dysfunctionalities at IDEI, Toulouse. Support from the Europlace Institute of Finance, the European Research Council and the Agence Nationale de la Recherche is gratefully aknowledged. Many thanks to...

Speculative industries exploit novel technologies subject to two risks. First, there is uncertainty about the fundamental value of the innovation: is it strong or fragile? Second, it is difficult to monitor managers, which creates moral hazard. Because of moral hazard, managers earn agency rents...

We study innovative industries subject to two risks. First, it is uncertain whether the innovation is strong or fragile. Second, it is difficult to monitor managers, which creates moral hazard and agency rents. As time goes by and profits are observed, beliefs about the industry are updated. As...

Speculative industries exploit novel technologies subject to two risks. First, there is uncertainty about the fundamental value of the innovation: is it strong or fragile? Second, it is difficult to monitor managers, which creates moral hazard. Because of moral hazard, managers earn agency rents...

We offer a rational expectations model of the dynamics of innovative industries. The fundamental value of innovations is uncertain and one must learn whether they are solid or fragile. Also, when the industry is new, it is difficult to monitor managers and make sure they exert the effort...

This research was conducted within the Paul Woolley Research Initiative on Capital Market Dysfunctionalities at IDEI, Toulouse. Support from the Europlace Institute of Finance is gratefully aknowledged. Many thanks to participants in the first conference of the Centre for the Study of Capital...

This research was conducted within the Paul Woolley Research Initiative on Capital Market Dysfunctionalities at IDEI, Toulouse. Support from the Europlace Institute of Finance is gratefully aknowledged. Many thanks to participants in the first conference of the Centre for the Study of Capital...