The forecast combination puzzle refers to the finding that a simple average forecast combination outperforms more sophisticated weighting schemes and/or the best individual model. The paper derives optimal (worst) forecast combinations based on stochastic dominance (SD) analysis with...

The paper involves the analysis of the seeds of the recent debt crisis that occurred in the Eurozone area. For the analysis we use the model of Fleming and Stein (2004). This model has two risk drivers arising from uncertainties in the return on capital and the effective rate of return on net...

The forecast combination puzzle refers to the finding that a simple average forecast combination outperforms more sophisticated weighting schemes and/or the best individual model. The paper derives optimal (worst) forecast combinations based on stochastic dominance (SD) analysis with...