Members of professional groups were much more likely to respond to a mail survey than nonmembers who were also experts in the area (43.7% versus 13.7%). A one-dollar (U.S.) prepaid monetary incentive increased the response rates, and it was as effective for members as for nonmembers (gains of...

Two studies were conducted to examine expert opinions of criteria used to select forecasting techniques. In Study One, while accuracy was a dominant criterion, the ratings of five of thirteen criteria varied by the role of the forecaster. Researchers rated accuracy relatively higher than did...

We drew upon findings from the diffusion literature to assess the prospects for the diffusion of expert systems in forecasting. Forecasters judged potential adoption of expert systems in relation to two techniques that had been widely adopted in the past, Box-Jenkins and scenarios. They also...

Causal forces are a way of summarizing forecasters' expectations about what will happen to a time series in the future. Contrary to the common assumption for extrapolation, time series are not always subject to consistent forces that point in the same direction. Some are affected by conflicting...