This paper assesses systemic linkages among banks in Hong Kong using the risk measure "CoVaR" derived from quantile regression. The CoVaR measure captures the co-movements of banks¡¯ default risk by taking into account their nonlinear relationship when the banks are in distress. Based on...

The recent tension in the interbank markets following the global financial crisis has raised concerns about the turbulence in interbank markets. This paper utilises two widely used indicators for measuring interbank stress (the interbank rate less the Overnight Index Swap rate and the interbank...

The predictability of stock market returns has been a challenge to market practitioners and financial economists. This is also important to central banks responsible for monitoring financial market stability. A number of variables have been found as predictors of future stock market returns with...

Given the close relationship between corporate vulnerabilities and the occurrence of banking and financial crises, regulators need to adopt a financial stability monitoring and surveillance framework which includes the assessment of the credit risk of the corporate sector. This paper illustrates...

The movement of sovereign yields is important for both investment and risk management. In this paper, we apply a method that was first developed by Diebold et al (2006b) to model the sovereign bond yield curves of the US, Japan and Germany. By including observable macroeconomic variables and the...

Development of the local bond markets has been a top priority for financial reforms in the region after the Asian financial crisis. Various initiatives have also been taken to foster the development of the regional bond market. This paper looks into the degree of integration of sovereign...

Among the various risks faced by banks that may have a systemic impact on the banking system, the credit risk has long been one of the concerns of central banks. This paper illustrates how to assess the credit risk of the banking system in Hong Kong by constructing an index of multiple default...

Financial integration has strong implications for financial stability. On the one hand, financial integration among economies helps improve their capacity to absorb shocks and foster development. On the other hand, intensified financial linkages in a world of increasing capital mobility may also...

Forward exchange rates convey information about the risk premiums of the currency exposures of the investors. The extraction of these risk premiums provides market information for the expected future values of a currency, which may be useful for policymakers in their market surveillance and...

Investors' attitude towards risk is a key factor driving the movement in asset prices. Global reduction in investors' risk appetite has coincided with episodes of global financial market correction. In this paper, we derive a measure for risk appetite based on the methodology of Gai and Vause...