The paper proposes a self-exciting asset pricing model that takes into account co-jumps between prices and volatility and self-exciting jump clustering. We employ a Bayesian learning approach to implement real time sequential analysis. We find evidence of self-exciting jump clustering since the...

A model of price determination is proposed that incorporates flat trading features into an efficient price process. The model involves the superposition of a Brownian semimartingale process for the efficient price and a Bernoulli process that determines the extent of flat price trading. A limit...

Recent work on econometric detection mechanisms has shown the effectiveness of recursive procedures in identifying and dating financial bubbles. These procedures are useful as warning alerts in surveillance strategies conducted by central banks and fiscal regulators with real time data. Use of...

This paper provides the limit theory of real time dating algorithms for bubble detection that were suggested in Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011, PWY) and Phillips, Shi and Yu (2013b, PSY). Bubbles are modeled using mildly explosive bubble episodes that are embedded within longer periods where the data...

A model of financial asset price determination is proposed that incorporates flat trading features into an e¡é cient price process. The model involves the superposition of a Brownian semimartin- gale process for the efficient price and a Bernoulli process that determines the extent of flat...

A recursive regression methodology is used to analyze the bubble characteristics of various fi- nancial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior and consistent dating of their origination and collapse. Seven relevant financial...

A new methodology is proposed to estimate theoretical prices of financial contin- gent claims whose values are dependent on some other underlying financial assets. In the literature, the preferred choice of estimator is usually maximum likelihood (ML). ML has strong asymptotic justification but...

Some limit theory is developed for estimators suggested in Phillips, Wu and Yu (2009) for dating bubble pheonoma in time series data. The models involve mildly explosive autoregressions and the tests rely on right sided recursive unit root tests. The estimates locate the origination and collapse...

This paper examines how volatility responds to return news in the context of stochastic volatility (SV) using a nonparametric method. The correlation structure in the classical leverage SV model is generalized based on a linear spline. In the new model the correlation between the return...